The economic future belongs to Europe

The economic future belongs to EuropeThe debt crisis, relayed minute by minute by the media, revived doubts about the future of our continent. The "time" of Europe would have happened? The economic and political balance is it now moving permanently to the East? There are many reasons for optimism in the medium term, provided it does not break an economic machine that relies primarily on men.


The euro area will it implode under the pressure of the markets and Europe will she sink into a depression that no one knows what will come out?
There are many reasons to be worried. Last Friday, Jacques Attali abruptly asked the question "Will the Euro will always exist at Christmas?". Even the best managed states in northern Europe such as Austria, the Netherlands and Finland are experiencing levels of "spread" records with Germany. The refinancing rate of the countries of southern Europe have reached unsustainable levels over time (the Italian ten-year rates have recently surpassed 7%, which is unprecedented).
So far, the policy led by Germany and France seemed hardly to agree on global measures likely to silence Cassandra. Increasing the ceiling using the EFSF to 1000 billion euros (of which only 20% guaranteed) and the "hair cut" 50% of the value of securities held by Greek banks, are only postpone deadlines that appear increasingly as inevitable.
In fact, the divergence of interests between the countries of the euro area appear to allow only partial measures. They allow to save time, but do not solve the problem. Chancellor Angela Merkel again rejected proposals last week in Brussels for the creation of eurobonds in the euro area. Reaffirming the role of the ECB, it opposed a large purchase of government bonds, which many would regard as necessary to relieve pressure on rates.
So what are the reasons to be optimistic about the future of Europe?
The lines are "trying to move" and it is very likely that solutions will be found as expected in the coming weeks. Germany was made up by the crisis. She just now to support the markets. Last Wednesday, the issue of "Bund" was taken out only up to 3.6 billion euros to 6 billion available, only 60% of the amount desired. She also knows that his fate is intimately linked to the rest of Europe. The euro area accounted for 55% of the trade surplus of German foreign trade in 2010. Germany draws much of its growth in trade relations with its European partners.
The grand bargain is being ... and a tempo race against time
The implementation of the reduction of public deficits is now inevitable, including France.Markets do not release their pressure and in all likelihood will require Europeans to pool their debt if we are to avoid the worst. Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn and the President of the European Commission presented a feasibility study on the Eurobonds. While Angela Merkel continued to pound last week that "harness the cart before the horse", the German position moves. Germany does not want a blank check, which is quite natural.
It probably will exchange agreement on eurobonds against a very significant strengthening of fiscal discipline in the countries of the monetary union, involving a revision of the treaties. In the first instance, to move forward quickly enough, agreements limited to a small number of countries will be passed. The decision announced yesterday by the Welt am Sonntag to move rapidly towards the establishment of a Stability and Growth limited to a few countries in the euro area subject themselves to greater financial discipline in this direction. Other countries in the area will have no choice, they will follow or leave the Euro, with all the consequences that would entail for them.
In the future, national budgets are likely to be considered by Brussels before being submitted to a vote by national parliaments
If they do not comply with the Stability and Growth, Brussels will have the power to ask for their adaptation. States lax can be increased control, close to the guardianship. If one goes to its logical conclusion, the Parliament may be initiated by the laws and Commission President elected by universal suffrage. The balance sheet, we could finally realize the economic and political integration that has always failed to count on the international scene. Nod to history, this integration would be under pressure from the markets and not by political vision.
Returning to the safer management approaches, there is no doubt that Europe will take the path of growth after the period of "financial drain" that we will know
The work done by Germany in recent years the show, the efforts are paying. Competitive again, having cleaned Finance, Europe win against donors lesson that, in the East and West, are far from the crowd under budget they implement. The only question really is outstanding length and hardness of the consolidation period that we will know. We have to shorten it by our dynamism and innovation.
Do not forget to prepare for "the next move"
Whether to be optimistic of a macroeconomic perspective, the key to success is as always in execution. The return to growth will not happen without the mobilization of the people. If the business is the social place par excellence, we must preserve its cohesion.Attention to workforce adjustments too brutal that may permanently destroy social ties already damaged by previous crises ...
Business leaders must be careful not to break the engine of the recovery by trying to adjust to the economic downturn. We must all keep this in mind in the current period. Winning the battle of the debt and the loss of human dynamics would be a historic mistake.




by  http://businesnew.blogspot.com/