The economic slowdown in 2001, while mild by historical standards, was geographically widespread. Real gross state product (GSP) for the nation - GSP adjusted to reflect price changes - grew 0.4 percent in 2001, compared with a 0.2-percent decline during the 1990-91 recession, and a 1.6-percent decline during the more severe 1981-82 recession./1./ In 2001, real GSP declined in 20 states and growth decelerated in an additional 26 states. During the 1990-91 recession, real total GSP declined in 18 states and growth decelerated in an additional 19 states. In contrast, during the more severe 1981- 82 recession, real total GSP declined in 37 states and decelerated in an additional 12 states.
Chart 1 shows trends in real GSP growth for 1990-2001 for the U.S. and for the top- and bottom-quintile states, where quintiles are defined by 2001 growth. With the exception of 2000, average growth in the top quintile has exceeded the U.S. rate every year since 1990. Further, real GSP growth in the top quintile remained positive and relatively strong both during the 2001 slowdown and in the 1990-91 recession. In contrast, the bottom-quintile states fared worse in 2001 than in the 1990-91 recession, with an average decline of 1.6 percent in 2001, compared with an average decline of 0.8 percent in the 1990-91 recession. Many of the bottom-quintile states specialize in traditional manufacturing industries that are sensitive to economic slowdowns.
/1./ Percent changes are expressed at annual rates and refer to 2001, 1991, and 1982, respectively. The GSP estimates for 1999-2000 released today are revised. See the "Sources of GSP revisions" section on page 3 for details on the revisions.
This news release is available at BEA's web site at www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm.
GSP Growth by Industry
The slowdown in real U.S. GSP was characterized by a decline in goods-producing industries (except mining) and decelerated growth in most services-producing industries. Manufacturing, which declined 6.0 percent in 2001, was largely responsible for the decline in real GSP in goods-producing industries. Manufacturing declined in 40 states and was the largest contributor to declines in real total GSP for all of the bottom-quintile states except Alaska.
Among the other goods-producing industry divisions, real GSP in construction declined in 37 states. Growth in mining was an important contributor to total GSP growth in a number of states, including Wyoming, West Virginia, New Mexico, and Nevada. But, mining, primarily oil and gas extraction, contributed significantly to a decline in Alaska's real GSP.
Despite the deceleration in real U.S. GSP growth in several services-producing industries in 2001, growth in these industries remained relatively strong. Overall growth in retail trade decelerated to 4.6 percent in 2001 from 7.5 percent in 2000, and growth in finance, insurance and real estate decelerated to 2.8 percent from 6.2 percent. From 2000 to 2001, real GSP growth in retail trade decelerated in 46 states; growth in finance, insurance and real estate decelerated in 42 states; and growth in services decelerated in 38 states. However, retail trade continued to grow in all states except Connecticut; finance, insurance and real estate grew in all but 11 states; and services grew in all but 11 states. Within finance, insurance and real estate, double-digit growth was reported in 2001 for non-depository institutions and for security and commodity brokers. In Delaware, real GSP in finance, insurance and real estate grew 18 percent, mainly due to growth in depository institutions and holding and other investment offices.
In contrast to fast growth during the 1990's, real GSP in high-tech industries (a combination of goods- and services-producing industries) was mixed in 2001. Communications grew in all states except Colorado and electronic and other electric equipment manufacturing grew in 45 states. These industries contributed to growth in several of the top-quintile states, including New Mexico, Vermont, Maryland, Nevada, Florida, and Texas. But, real U.S. GSP declined in industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing and in business services.
Within tourism-related services-producing industries, slow growth or declines in U.S. GSP in transportation by air, hotels and other lodging places, and amusement and recreation services affected many states, partially reflecting reductions in business air travel and tourism after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Despite declines in two industries relatively important to its economy--transportation by air and hotels and other lodging places--Nevada was in the top quintile in 2001.
GSP Growth by Component
The changes over time in the capital and labor shares of industry value added reflect differences in the growth rates of the components of current-dollar GSP by industry--compensation of employees, indirect business tax and nontax liability, and property-type income. In every BEA region, the trends in the GSP income component shares mirrored the national trend for 1999-2001-- the share of compensation of employees increased, the share of indirect business tax and nontax liability was unchanged, and the share of property-type income decreased.
State shares of U.S. current-dollar GSP in 2001
In 2001, current-dollar GSP for the nation was $10.1 trillion. California accounted for the largest share (13.4 percent) of the nation; its GSP has exceeded $1 trillion since 1997 (see table 4). The other four states with the largest shares of the U.S. total were New York (8.2 percent), Texas (7.5 percent), Florida (4.8 percent), and Illinois (4.7 percent). North Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota had the smallest shares. The states representing the five largest and five smallest shares did not change throughout the 1990s.
Sources of GSP revisions
The GSP estimates have been revised for 1999 and 2000 to incorporate the results of the most recent revisions of state personal income, of the national estimates of gross product by industry, and of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's). The revised GSP estimates also reflect incorporation of the 2000 and 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM). The ASM data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) rather than on the Standard Industrial Classification System (SIC). For this revision, the 1999-2001 ASM data were converted from NAICS to the SIC by BEA on the basis of information provided by the source agency (see "Industry classification" section below).
In general, the revisions to GSP as a percentage of the previously published estimates for all years were small. For the nation, current-dollar GSP was revised down $28.2 billion in 1999, and revised down $50.4 billion in 2000. For 2000, the five states with the largest downward percentage revisions were New Mexico (-3.3 percent), West Virginia (-3.2 percent), North Carolina (-3.1 percent), Arizona (-1.8 percent), and Mississippi (-1.7 percent). For a detailed discussion of major sources of the revisions and of the impacts of the revisions, see "Gross State Product by Industry, 1999-2001" in a forthcoming issue of the Survey of Current Business.
Industry classification
In 1997, U.S. federal statistical agencies adopted NAICS, an economic classification system that groups establishments into industries based on similarity of production processes. NAICS provides a new framework for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating economic data on an industry basis. Some of BEA's source data, however, still remain on a Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) basis. BEA plans to incorporate NAICS into its GSP estimates upon full implementation of NAICS by all of its source-data agencies in 2004-2005. For more information, see "The North American Industry Classification System in BEA's Economic Accounts," Survey of Current Business (May 2001): 7-13.
Definitions
GSP is the value added in production by the labor and property located in a state. GSP for a state is derived as the sum of the GSP originating in all industries in the state.
The estimates of real GSP were derived by applying national implicit price deflators by detailed industry to the current-dollar GSP estimates by detailed industry. Then, in order to capture the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the states produce, the same chain-type index formula used in the national accounts was used to calculate the estimates of total real GSP and real GSP by major industry. For additional information, see "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," Survey of Current Business 77 (May 1997): 58-68; "Comprehensive Revision of Gross State Product by Industry, 1977-94," Survey 77 (June 1997): 28-29; and "Gross State Product by Industry, 1992-99," Survey 81 (August 2001): 69-90.
The relation of GSP to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
In concept, an industry's GSP, referred to as its "value added," is equivalent to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, commodity taxes, and inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other U.S. industries or imported). Thus, GSP is often considered the state counterpart of the nation's GDP, BEA's featured measure of U.S. output. In practice, GSP estimates are measured as the sum of the distributions by industry and state of the components of gross domestic income, that is, the sum of the costs incurred and incomes earned in the production of GDP.
GSP for the nation differs from GDP for the following reasons: GSP is derived from gross domestic income, which differs from GDP by the statistical discrepancy; GSP excludes and GDP includes the compensation of federal civilian and military personnel stationed abroad and government consumption of fixed capital for military structures located abroad and for military equipment, except office equipment; and GSP and GDP have different revision schedules. In 2000-2001, real GDP grew 0.3 percent, and real GSP for the nation grew 0.4 percent.
Availability of detailed GSP estimates
GSP estimates for 63 industries and 3 income components for states, BEA regions, and the United States are available on BEA's Web site: www.bea.gov. The site also contains BEA's major national, regional, international, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases.
In BEA's GSP accounts, estimates of compensation of employees and property-type income are based on estimates of wages and salaries and proprietors' income, respectively, from BEA's personal income accounts. For 2001, BEA's estimates of wages and salaries and proprietors' income were published on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) at the sub-sector level and on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) at the division level. Therefore, for the 2001 GSP estimates presented here, compensation of employees and property-type income estimates are being released at only the SIC division level, while estimates of GSP by industry and of indirect business tax and non-tax liability (IBT) are being released for the usual 63 SIC-based industries.
Regional Income and Product release dates for the rest of 2003:
![Pic pétrolier : l’alerte d’un expert du FMI [interview] | Chronique des Droits de l'Homme | Scoop.it](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vEfHV3zUDtOox8rGqyB8Yr9p5ManwLQa2-HlDxi1cOF-fCILQKALsItk35w1zjfttHEExyLa3gWUEtXgEw7zittwGlTfSAPg7BRqzO1-zFnVFe8UlBMjIMQt0m8uR4M5vALG6Fo3h7ymcFVH1DlXCAksBUEW1y=s0-d)
List of UK refineries
